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(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street expects another bumpy day for stocks should Wednesday’s US inflation number miss in either direction.
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Forecasters expect the report to show a fifth month of firm increases, with the core consumer price index seen rising 0.3% in December, according to a Bloomberg survey. A number above that level will see stocks fall about 1% to 2%, while a softer result could spark a rally of similar magnitude, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Global stock markets became more worried in 2025, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.7% year-to-date, after a spate of solid economic data trimmed the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut expectations, triggered a rise in government bond yields as well as higher intraday equity swings.
“US equities may now need clear relief from hawkish policy to make a sustained move higher,” Goldman strategist Dom Wilson wrote in a note on Tuesday. “We think equities may remain more fragile until we reverse the perception that the Fed put is now struck lower.”
JPMorgan’s Market Intelligence Team noted that Wednesday’s inflation print is a “pivot data point” with the VIX volatility gauge based on S&P 500 index options already at the highest level since October’s CPI publication.
“A dovish print likely reignites the rally which is likely to get a boost from a strong earnings period,” the team wrote. “A hawkish print could see the 10Y yield make a run at 5%, increasing volatility cross all asset classes, and continuing to pressure equities.”
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