It’s official. Donald Trump will be the 45th president of the United States. Now comes the interesting part: dissecting the kind of impact his campaign promises could have on the country.
During his campaign, Trump repeatedly expressed his desire to overhaul trade policy on goods produced overseas. But doing so could hurt US consumers, especially when it comes to the cost of consumer tech. The cost of some products could spike by as much as 45%, if Trump goes forward with his suggestion that the US place a 45% tariff on Chinese goods.
“Trump took a very strong negative position on trade,” said Professor Gian Luca Clementi of New York University’s Stern School of Business. “The question is if he is going to follow through on these threats, and what these impacts will be on these industry.”
In an interview with The New York Times’ editorial board, Trump said he would consider placing a 45% tax on Chinese goods. Such a move could prove especially damaging for consumer technology companies such as Apple (AAPL), which produces the vast majority of its products in China. Indeed, most technology companies rely on Chinese manufacturing or Chinese parts.
If such a tariff were put into place, it would cost companies more to sell Chinese-made products in the US and cost US consumers more to purchase those products. For Apple that means some goods might cost 45% more.
But not every Apple product would see the same kind of price increase for US consumers, according to Dr. Robert Rogowsky, program chair and professor of international trade and economic diplomacy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
“Some products will probably go up by 45%, but most products will not, because some of that profit will be absorbed by the producers,” Rogowsky said, adding that assemblers in China could offset some of the increased costs.
That said, such action would have far-reaching global consequences. The consumer technology industry is, after all, a worldwide market. Raising tariffs on China, then, could lead to tax spikes in companies as far away as Europe, through.
“Everything would rise for consumers and they would consume less. But that filters back through the whole supply chain. So American businesses, Korean businesses, Japanese businesses and German businesses would feel this,” Rogowsky explained.
Korean companies like LG and Samsung would likely be insulated from any direct changes to tariffs, as Korea and the US already have a trade agreement in place. They could still face problems because they use Chinese parts. But because China produces nearly all consumer tech products, every tech company would face the same issues.