It's Been A Disappointing Journey For Associated International Hotels (HKG:105) Shareholders Who've Lost 8.6% Of Their Investment

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Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even in a market-beating portfolio, some stocks will lag the market. The Associated International Hotels Limited (HKG:105) stock price is down 30% over five years, but the total shareholder return is -8.6% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 16%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 28% over the last twelve months. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 13% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 12% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

View our latest analysis for Associated International Hotels

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

In the last half decade Associated International Hotels saw its share price fall as its EPS declined below zero. The recent extraordinary items contributed to this situation. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SEHK:105 Past and Future Earnings April 26th 2020
SEHK:105 Past and Future Earnings April 26th 2020

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on Associated International Hotels's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Associated International Hotels's TSR for the last 5 years was -8.6%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!