It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. When you buy individual stocks, you can make higher profits, but you also face the risk of under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Vincit Oyj (HEL:VINCIT) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 45%. That's well bellow the market return of -3.3%. Because Vincit Oyj hasn't been listed for many years, the market is still learning about how the business performs. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 30% in the last three months.

See our latest analysis for Vincit Oyj

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Vincit Oyj share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 129%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past. It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. So it's easy to justify a look at some other metrics.

Vincit Oyj's revenue is actually up 5.6% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

We know that Vincit Oyj has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Vincit Oyj

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Vincit Oyj's TSR for the last year was -42%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We doubt Vincit Oyj shareholders are happy with the loss of 42% over twelve months (even including dividends). That falls short of the market, which lost 3.3%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. With the stock down 30% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Basically, most investors should be wary of buying into a poor-performing stock, unless the business itself has clearly improved. Importantly, we haven't analysed Vincit Oyj's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.