Donald Trump likes deals. Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky seems poised to give him one that could be a lifeline for his embattled country as it fights a Russian invasion now in its fourth year.
President Trump has been far more hostile toward Ukraine during his first month in office than his predecessor Joe Biden was. Trump has tried to rewrite history with the absurd claim that Ukraine started the war, even though Russian President Vladimir Putin was the one who sent tanks rumbling across his neighbor’s border in February 2022. Trump calls Zelensky a “dictator,” even though Zelensky won a legitimate electoral victory in 2019 and is popular among his citizens.
Trump’s most ominous signal has been his insistence that the United States has spent too much money helping Ukraine fend off Russia and is ready to stand down. He said he'd end the war "in a day," or at least quickly, which mainly sounded like he'd tell Ukraine to cave. At the same time, Trump has hinted that US aid could continue if Ukraine gave something back.
Enter minerals. Somewhere along the way, Trump got the idea that Ukraine had a wealth of natural resources and the United States should be entitled to a share. Conventional foreign policy analysts cast the idea as a crass shakedown of a worthy victim in genuine need, which it probably is. It may even violate international law meant to prevent “economic coercion” of one nation by another.
Clever deal: Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky (AP Foto/Evgeniy Maloletka) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Yet, it might still be a clever deal for Ukraine to make.
As the wartime president of an underdog nation, Zelensky thinks like a creative opportunist almost as eager to make deals as Trump is. In his fourth year of navigating the manic swings of American policy, he also seems to grasp the value of political theater and especially of knowing who your audience is.
The minerals deal will reportedly entail a kind of 50-50 joint venture focused on investing in — and profiting from — Ukraine’s mineral wealth. The United States and Ukraine would each get half the profits from Ukraine’s future production of oil, natural gas, and other hydrocarbons, plus critical minerals such as titanium, lithium, and uranium. Part of the proceeds would be invested in future production and infrastructure.
It would be better if the United States just acted like a grown-up nation and did whatever was necessary to repel Putin and his barbarian hordes because that is in America’s interest. But the minerals deal might still be a way for Ukraine to get what it needs. Zelensky no doubt sees a chance to enlist the United States as an economic partner on projects that will only be valuable if it survives the war as an independent and stable nation.
“It’s a minerals deal that could prove critical,” the Atlantic Council explained in a Feb. 26 analysis. “It gives Trump one more reason to make good on his stated intention to broker a quick end to Russia’s war on Ukraine that ensures the sovereignty, economic viability, and security of Ukraine from future Kremlin aggression.”
The agreement, so far, doesn’t spell out what the United States would give Ukraine in return. There could actually be a series of deals, such as a first one that’s an agreement in principle and a second one that defines terms more specifically. Trump could also use a Ukraine deal as leverage against Russia, which he also wants to make mineral deals with.
So Trump could be using Zelenksy to squeeze better concessions out of Putin. But why would Zelensky mind? If Trump raises the cost to Russia of ending the war, that’s in Ukraine’s interests.
Squeezing Putin? U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrive for their joint news conference in the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland July 16, 2018. (Photo: Lehtikuva/Antti Aimo-Koivisto via REUTERS) ·REUTERS / Reuters
In Ukraine, there seems to be a kind of weary resignation that a showy deal with Trump is just the way you have to flatter his ego when you want something from him.
“Essentially, the [deal] is just a memorandum on how the U.S. and Ukraine are intended to invest in Ukraine's mining industry and mineral resources and jointly get profits at some point,” the Ukrainian war journalist Illia Ponomarenko posted on social media. “Now, Donald Trump will declare a grandiose victory as soon as Zelensky signs this in front of cameras in D.C., and essentially, that's it.”
Exactly! The word is out, finally.
If Trump ends up not holding up his end of the bargain, whatever it may be, Ukraine will have far bigger things to worry about anyway, namely getting enough support from European nations and other allies to keep the war going. Zelensky also has to be thinking that by the time any minerals deal actually went into practice, years down the road, Trump could be long gone and another US president might just cancel the deal.
As for the war itself, Putin has clearly been hoping that a second Trump term would end US aid for Ukraine and close its most vital source of weaponry, finally exhausting Ukraine’s will to fight.
But Russia is pretty exhausted too. It’s approaching a staggering 1 million troops dead or wounded, and its heavily sanctioned economy is hurting. Neither side is yet willing to make major concessions, yet each has reasons to want the war to end.
Make 'em an offer.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman.
