Incoming President Joe Biden is going big, but that doesn’t mean he’ll get big.

Biden’s new coronavirus stimulus plan calls for $1.9 trillion in new spending, on top of $4.1 trillion Congress has already approved in the four relief bills passed since last March. With Democrats controlling both houses of Congress beginning Jan. 20, Biden’s party will manage the agenda in Congress for the first time since 2010.

But Biden isn’t going to get everything he’s asking for. Democrats will have just a one-vote majority in the Senate, and there are at least three conservative Democrats unlikely to rubber stamp every spending bill. Senate Dems can pass one budget bill per year using the reconciliation process, which requires a simple majority vote. But they’ll probably save that for future legislation, meaning Biden’s stimulus bill will need 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster, including at least 10 Republicans.

“This package, as proposed, does not have the 60 votes necessary to pass the U.S. Senate,” investing firm Raymond James explained in a Jan. 15 research note. “An additional $1T in spending should be considered the more likely threshold.” Here’s a breakdown of what Biden’s asking for, and what Congress might agree to.

New stimulus checks. Biden and his fellow Democrats made a vocal commitment to $2,000 checks for most Americans in December, and they’re now bound to deliver on that. Since Congress approved $600 checks in the bill they passed in December, Biden wants an additional $1,400. Some Republicans are fine with this, and Democrats will have to persuade others if necessary. Consider it done.

Extended unemployment aid. The Biden plan would raise supplemental unemployment aid from $300 per week to $400. The current program will expire in March, and Biden would extend it through September. Congress probably won’t go that far. It might be more likely to keep the benefit at $300 and extend it for three months or so. It can always extend the program again if needed.

$100 billion for coronavirus testing and vaccinations. This would be a major boost in funding to help states and cities get people vaccinated and expand testing resources. The need for this is obvious, given the slow pace of the vaccine rollout, and Congress probably would have passed this sooner if President Trump had demanded it. Congress will probably approve most of this funding.

$350 billion in aid for states and cities. Republicans blocked this type of spending when they controlled the Senate, and there probably won’t be 10 votes for it now. A final package will probably include far less than this.