After years of speculation, Apple will join the Dow Jones industrial average. But that could be a bad sign for the iPhone titan.

Apple (AAPL) will replace AT&T (NYSE:T) after the market close March 18.

But Dow's selection committee has a history of picking technology companies at their peak or past their prime.

"Joining Dow takes the shine off the Apple and makes it a rotten Apple," wrote Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry in a note. "Companies in the Dow have historically symbolized companies which are boring, have zero innovation, are complacent and are inching closer to irrelevance by the day ... which is definitely not what Apple is all about.

On Nov. 1, 1999, SBC Communications, Home Depot (HD), Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) joined the Dow in a major shift toward technology. Students of market history recall this was near the very end of the dot-com boom.

Microsoft has limped to a mere 2% gain — badly lagging the Dow's 68% advance. The Windows software maker is still below its December 1999 peak. Intel is down 13% since joining the Dow. SBC merged with AT&T and took its name, but has lost 34% since it was added. All were huge winners in the 1990s bull market, but couldn't sustain their growth after 2000.

Home Depot ultimately fared well, with a 125% gain. But it was in a downtrend from the end of 1999 to late 2008.

Cisco (CSCO) has rallied since joining on June 8, 2009, but less than half of the Dow's 104% move.

Tech companies may be at a disadvantage because when they become big enough to be considered for the Dow, they've lost their edge. Smaller, innovative competitors pass them by.

Apple Still Innovating

Apple has continued to shine, so far. Earnings and sales growth are accelerating. And the tech giant doesn't seem to be running out of ideas. The iPhone 6 has been been another runaway success since its late 2014 release. Apple Pay is gaining a big foothold in fast-growing mobile payments field. On Monday, Apple unveils the Apple Watch.

Apple shares rallied on the Dow news, but settled for a slim gain of 19 cents at 126.60 as the general market sold off. Apple stock peaked at 133.60 on Feb. 24.

UnitedHealth A Dow Success

Dow Jones has had better luck with nontech stocks. Insurance giant Travelers (TRV), added the same day as Cisco, has outperformed the Dow with a 141% gain. And UnitedHealth (UNH), added Sept. 24, 2012, has risen 101% vs. a 32% gain for the Dow.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 10% since joining on Sept. 20, 2103 — though that lags the Dow's 16% rise. Nike (NKE) is up 40% and Visa (NYSE:V) 35%. But those stocks haven't yet weathered multiple market cycles that could see their industries falling from favor.

Some stocks leaving the Dow in the past 15 years have been lost to mergers and bankruptcies. Union Carbide was bought by Dow Chemical (DOW) in 1999. Eastman Kodak couldn't keep up with digital technology. General Motors (GM) collapsed into bankruptcy amid the financial crisis. American International Group (AIG) went into government receivership about the same time.

But Altria (MO), formerly Philip Morris, and Honeywell have smoked the Dow since they were ejected on Feb. 19, 2008.

The three names replaced by Goldman, Nike and Visa have done all right. Bank of America (BAC) is about even, with a 15% rise vs. the Dow's 16%. Once-troubled Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Alcoa (AA) have gained 49% and 88%, respectively.

In 2012, there was a groundswell of support for Apple's addition to the Dow. But the drumbeat was ignored.

A quirk of the ancient index — it began May 26, 1896, with 12 smokestack companies — is that it's price-weighted. So the highest-priced stocks have the greatest influence. Most indexes weight by market capitalization.

At the time, Apple was trading around 570, and the guardians of the index argued that it would have an outsized influence. But since then, Apple has split 7-for-1.

Friday's move was triggered by Visa, which has announced a 4-for-1 split. That would lower techs' weight in the Dow. Adding Apple would help balance it, said S&P Dow Jones Indicies.