Apple (AAPL) is expected to announce the iPhone 7 in September, and rumors of an extremely minor hardware update have spurred least one bearish research firm to ratchet down its sales predictions.

The iPhone 7 is “unlikely to either drive enough existing users to upgrade sooner or attract more switchers than before from Android devices” — due to what pundits speculate is a slight update, Oppenheimer & Co. senior analyst Andrew Uerkwitz wrote in an August report.

Over the last several months, the buzz surrounding what the iPhone 7 will and won’t be has become a deafening roar in the tech blogosphere, in part because the smartphone apparently won’t get the major design revamp Apple traditionally unleashes on consumers every other year.

What they can expect instead, if rumors and alleged leaked photos prove true, is a device that looks a lot like the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus, albeit with a slight change to the back of the phone at the top and bottom. Also possible: a dual-lens camera to improve image quality, particularly in shots with less light; the removal of the classic headphone jack; a pressure-sensitive home button that provides feedback to users through vibration; and the ability to charge the phone wirelessly.

While those purported new features are nothing to scoff at, the lack of a total redesign this year is leaving many people, including Uerkwitz, wanting more. Which is why the Oppenheimer & Co. analyst is taking a contrarian view to many Apple analysts and predicting a decline of 6.4% year-over-year in iPhone shipments to 197 million units vs. the consensus estimate of 5.5% growth, or 221 million units for Apple’s fiscal year 2017, which starts Sept. 25 this year and wraps September 2017.

Uerkwitz’s estimate also comes on the heels of Apple’s third-quarter earnings this July, when the company reported iPhone sales slumped for the first time ever, plunging 16.3%, and in turn, disclosed the first quarterly revenues decline since 2003.

It’s widely expected Apple will save a major redesign for next year’s iPhone model instead, which is also fittingly the device’s 10th anniversary. Between June 2007 and the end of 2015, Apple is estimated to have sold 896 million iPhones, according to CNNMoney.

Correction: This post initially referred to Oppenheimer & Co. as Oppenheimer Funds. The post also referred to Apple on track to selling 1 billion smartphones, which the company already achieved in July. The errors have been corrected.

JP Mangalindan is a senior correspondent for Yahoo Finance covering the intersection of tech and business. Follow him on Twitter or Facebook.

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