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Shares of Altria (MO) have been struggling lately and have lost 5.9% over the past four weeks. However, a hammer chart pattern was formed in its last trading session, which could mean that the stock found support with bulls being able to counteract the bears. So, it could witness a trend reversal down the road.
While the formation of a hammer pattern is a technical indication of nearing a bottom with potential exhaustion of selling pressure, rising optimism among Wall Street analysts about the future earnings of this owner of Philip Morris USA, the nation's largest cigarette maker is a solid fundamental factor that enhances the prospects of a trend reversal for the stock.
Understanding Hammer Chart and the Technique to Trade It
This is one of the popular price patterns in candlestick charting. A minor difference between the opening and closing prices forms a small candle body, and a higher difference between the low of the day and the open or close forms a long lower wick (or vertical line). The length of the lower wick being at least twice the length of the real body, the candle resembles a 'hammer.'
In simple terms, during a downtrend, with bears having absolute control, a stock usually opens lower compared to the previous day's close, and again closes lower. On the day the hammer pattern is formed, maintaining the downtrend, the stock makes a new low. However, after eventually finding support at the low of the day, some amount of buying interest emerges, pushing the stock up to close the session near or slightly above its opening price.
When it occurs at the bottom of a downtrend, this pattern signals that the bears might have lost control over the price. And, the success of bulls in stopping the price from falling further indicates a potential trend reversal.
Hammer candles can occur on any timeframe -- such as one-minute, daily, weekly -- and are utilized by both short-term as well as long-term investors.
Like every technical indicator, the hammer chart pattern has its limitations. Particularly, as the strength of a hammer depends on its placement on the chart, it should always be used in conjunction with other bullish indicators.
Here's What Increases the Odds of a Turnaround for MO
An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions that MO has been witnessing lately can certainly be considered a bullish indicator on the fundamental side. That's because empirical research shows that trends in earnings estimate revisions are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements.
The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased 0.2% over the last 30 days. This means that the Wall Street analysts covering MO are majorly in agreement about the company's potential to report better earnings than what they predicted earlier.
