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Investors in Hong Kong are bracing for a Year of the Snake full of uncertainties and some market participants are looking to artificial intelligence (AI) and feng shui masters to determine what lies ahead.
The Hang Seng Index will be flat in the first quarter, it will rise in the second quarter and will decline in the second half of 2025, according to an AI model run by Calvin Tsai, co-founder of the Hong Kong Programme Trading Research Centre (HKPTRC). The model uses machine learning to process various factors via regression analyses in an effort to find patterns.
Brokerage CLSA published its tongue-in-cheek Feng Shui Index on Wednesday. It predicts some turbulence for the benchmark in the early months of the year and a jump in May, the snake's "home month". But it said the summer months will be dominated by a lazy snake, followed by a flying snake that will end 2025 on a high note.
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A feng shui AI programme developed by Poe, a chatbot aggregator from question-and-answer platform Quora, provides another view. It says the Hang Seng Index, with the rooster as its zodiac animal, will see improving fortunes in the first four months of the Year of the Snake. May will bring overheated fire, which will lead to people making irrational decisions, followed by ascending fortunes and a smoother course for the remainder of the year.
"The snake symbolises adaptability and flexibility," said Forest Chan, the "wand-bearer" of CLSA's Feng Shui Index this year who is an equities analyst at the firm. "We expect a smoother path with few surprises for the Hang Seng Index", when compared with the dramatic Year of the Dragon, he added.
The Year of the Snake begins on January 29 and ends on February 16 next year, according to the Chinese zodiac calendar. The Feng Shui Index is not a research report, CLSA said, and investors should make decisions based on fundamental analyses.
Another AI model from technology company Arbor tells a different story. The model "ArborChat" used a proprietary deep-reasoning AI structure to answer questions based on public information and 30 investment-related research reports published from the end of November to December to determine what the market outlook might look like.
The chatbot said the Hang Seng Index is expected to rise 18 per cent in 2025, driven by growth in corporate earnings and supportive fiscal policies from Beijing, despite risks from geopolitical tensions and other economic challenges.
