3 historic precedents show tech stocks will go higher

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After a strong year in technology (Nasdaq Composite up +43.6% in 2020), it is perfectly normal to see the market consolidate and correct those large gains. Coming out of these corrections, it is common to see another leg higher in the market, and there are three historical precedents that demonstrate that.

You might be thinking “What correction? The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high last week.” Please keep in mind I’m referring to growth stocks, which have clearly been in a correction since early February of this year.

NEW YORK - APRIL 16:  Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange moments before the closing bell on April 16, 2009 in New York City. The Dow finished up again Wednesday gaining 95.81 points.  (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
NEW YORK - APRIL 16: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange moments before the closing bell on April 16, 2009 in New York City. The prior day, the Dow finished up gaining 95.81 points. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) · Spencer Platt via Getty Images

The first example is 1995. That year, the Nasdaq Composite was up +40% and the rally continued into May 1996. After correcting close to 20%, the next move higher began in September 1996, and ultimately accelerated into the great bull market of the late 1990s.

Chart is provided by MarketSmith
Chart is provided by MarketSmith

In 2003, the Nasdaq Composite gained +50% and eventually peaked in January 2004. After consolidating for seven months, the next leg up began in September 2004. According to Mike Cintolo, Chief Analyst at Cabot Growth Investor, “The upmove after that didn’t get far into new high ground, but it was an excellent stretch. That’s when Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) really began their mega-runs.”

Chart is provided by MarketSmith
Chart is provided by MarketSmith

Finally, in 2009, the Nasdaq Composite rose +44% and continued into April 2010. After a four-month correction, the index resumed its advance in September 2010, and then gained over +30% into early 2011. More importantly, for growth stock traders, many stocks such as Lululemon (LULU) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) saw triple-digit gains during that run.

Chart is provided by MarketSmith
Chart is provided by MarketSmith

These three historical precedents provide a decent blueprint for today’s Nasdaq Composite. Last year’s gain carried into this year before peaking in February. Since then, the index has corrected for approximately four months, and is now looking to make another move higher. We still have to get through a few events in June, such as the annual Russell 2000 rebalancing on June 25 and normal end of the quarter portfolio adjustments. There could be some volatility around these events, but eventually, it looks like technology is ready for the next leg higher. It could begin in early July as the market starts to anticipate the next round of earnings reports.

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