Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. So after glancing at the trends within SkyCity Entertainment Group (NZSE:SKC), we weren't too hopeful.

What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on SkyCity Entertainment Group is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.024 = NZ$63m ÷ (NZ$2.8b - NZ$181m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

So, SkyCity Entertainment Group has an ROCE of 2.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Hospitality industry average of 6.9%.

See our latest analysis for SkyCity Entertainment Group

In the above chart we have measured SkyCity Entertainment Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering SkyCity Entertainment Group here for free.

How Are Returns Trending?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at SkyCity Entertainment Group. To be more specific, the ROCE was 11% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on SkyCity Entertainment Group becoming one if things continue as they have.

Our Take On SkyCity Entertainment Group's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 14% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing SkyCity Entertainment Group that you might find interesting.