Vectura Group plc (LON:VEC) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat both earnings and revenue forecasts, with revenue of UK£191m, some 6.9% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at UK£0.20, 1,030% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Vectura Group

After the latest results, the consensus from Vectura Group's seven analysts is for revenues of UK£174.9m in 2021, which would reflect an uncomfortable 8.2% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 91% to UK£0.019 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£172.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.16 in 2021. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at UK£1.31, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vectura Group analyst has a price target of UK£1.49 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£0.88. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vectura Group shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.2% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2021. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Vectura Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.