Did The Underlying Business Drive APL Apollo Tubes's (NSE:APLAPOLLO) Lovely 361% Share Price Gain?

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It hasn't been the best quarter for APL Apollo Tubes Limited (NSE:APLAPOLLO) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 361% in that time. So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. The most important thing for savvy investors to consider is whether the underlying business can justify the share price gain.

View our latest analysis for APL Apollo Tubes

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, APL Apollo Tubes managed to grow its earnings per share at 20% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 36% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NSEI:APLAPOLLO Past and Future Earnings, October 16th 2019
NSEI:APLAPOLLO Past and Future Earnings, October 16th 2019

Dive deeper into APL Apollo Tubes's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of APL Apollo Tubes's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, APL Apollo Tubes's TSR for the last 5 years was 385%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

APL Apollo Tubes shareholders gained a total return of 2.0% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 37% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Before spending more time on APL Apollo Tubes it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.