There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after investigating Coffee Holding (NASDAQ:JVA), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.

What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Coffee Holding:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.014 = US$462k ÷ (US$37m - US$4.8m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to April 2021).

Thus, Coffee Holding has an ROCE of 1.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Food industry average of 10%.

Check out our latest analysis for Coffee Holding

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you'd like to look at how Coffee Holding has performed in the past in other metrics, you can view this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Can We Tell From Coffee Holding's ROCE Trend?

In terms of Coffee Holding's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 13% over the last five years. Given the business is employing more capital while revenue has slipped, this is a bit concerning. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.

The Key Takeaway

We're a bit apprehensive about Coffee Holding because despite more capital being deployed in the business, returns on that capital and sales have both fallen. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 3.0% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.

One more thing: We've identified 4 warning signs with Coffee Holding (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them would certainly be useful.