This is a big week for economic data (especially when assuming the data might support the belief that the Federal Reserve should cut the fed funds rate at the September 18 meeting). We have July PPI this morning; July CPI on Wednesday; July Retail Sales, Industrial Production, the Philly Fed, Empire State Manufacturing, and initial jobless claims on Thursday; and July Housing Starts and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. While the majority of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 results, we have some big reports remaining, including AMAT, BABA, CSCO, DE, HD, and WMT. As expected, stocks did very little on Monday as market participants sat on their hands and waited for the news flow to dictate the next short-term direction of the market and interest rates. The small-caps did fall, with IWM down 0.9%, SML off 1.2%, and MDY down 0.6%. Information Technology rose 0.8% and Energy was up 0.5%, but Communication Services, Real Estate, Staples, Financial, Industrials, Discretionary, Healthcare, and Materials were all off from 0.4% to 0.7%. The three major indices all traced out doji candlesticks on Monday, a sign of indecision. They also all failed right at their flattening 13-day exponential averages. Some key short-term resistance levels for the S&P 500 include a 50% retracement of the recent decline at 5,395, the breakdown level at 5,400, the flat 50-day average at 5,449, and a 61.8% take-back at 5,460. For the Nasdaq, a 50% retracement sits at 17,190, which is also the breakdown level; the 50-day and a 61.8% take-back target 17,540. For the Nasdaq 100, a 50% retrace is at 463.50 and the 50-day and a 61.8% take-back are at 473. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

A large-cap financial services company, Moody's provides credit ratings on 11,000 corporate issuers and 18,000 public finance issuers in 120 countries. Its analytics division provides clients with financial analysis and risk management services. The stock is a component of the S&P 500. The company has 15,000 employees.

Stocks are down sharply today, including all of the Magnificent 7 stocks. The first two Big Tech companies, Tesla and Alphabet, missed on earnings and that is shaking confidence across the board. The Nasdaq is faring the worst, down 2.5% at midday. Other Big Tech earnings are scattered with some coming next week. Chipotle and IBM report after-the-bell today.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday, as investors preferred not to front-run some of the second-quarter EPS reports from mega-cap IT names, especially as many have had huge advances since late October. The mega-cap indices saw fractional losses, while the standout, again, was the small-cap world. The Russell 2000 (IWM) rose 1.1% and the S&P SmallCap 600 (SML) tacked on 0.7%. Both ETFs are points away from recent closing highs. Checking in on recent improvement in the internal data of the SML ($1,411), 75% of the stocks are above their 200-day exponential average (EMA) as of last week, up from 44% in mid-June. During the last major bottom in October, that had dropped all the way to 20%. SML issues above their 50-day exponential has spiked to a recent high of 87% from just 27% in mid-June. This improvement in breadth also occurred late last year and was followed by a 6.5-month trading range. We see overbought daily momentum stats today that are similar to those from late December. The SML advance-decline line has jumped to its highest level since early 2023 and is only several hundred issues from its all-time high in June 2021, while price is only 60 points from its all-time high of 1,466 in November 2021. The relative strength for the index versus the S&P 500 has outperformed since only July 10, so we obviously would prefer to see a longer stretch of this relative strength. But then again, it has to start somewhere. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)